Archive for August, 2018
Weekly Talking Points
The S&P 500 ground out a positive 0.66% last week while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shot up 1.48% on a softening of the “trade war” talk between the US and China. International markets continued sell off with political tensions (mainly Turkey) as both developed (MSCI EAFE) and emerging (MSCI EM) declined 1.10% and 3.68% respectively. Retail sales in the US continue to impress, as they increased 0.5% month over month in July. As long as the consumer, well, consumes, this is a good indicator of future growth. Particularly encouraging were sales at restaurants and gas stations as these are considered discretionary (generally the first to slow or decline in times of economic stress). The selloff in emerging markets is somewhat disappointing. Coming into the year our investment committee was constructive on EM in general and we got this one wrong. The strengthening dollar has been the main culprit up…
Weekly Talking Points
The S&P 500 ground out a positive 0.80% last week while the Dow Jones industrial Average was essentially flat (up 0.05%). International markets however took a breather as both developed (MSCI EAFE) and emerging (MSCI EM) declined 1.45% and 1.66% respectively. Personal income and personal consumption both rose 0.4% in June. Personal income is up 4.9%, and spending is up 5.1% yoy. Both of these beat the average inflation numbers of around 2.2% very handily – the US consumer appears to be healthy at this point in the business cycle. The ISM Manufacturing index declined slightly to 58.1 in July (as a reminder levels above 50 signal expansion and below 50 contraction), which was below the 59.4 consensus. This will give the people who were raising concern about “trade wars” plenty of ammunition until the next report comes out. However, I would caution that these reports can be volatile month-to-month…
Determining Your Safe Withdrawal Rate
Sequence of return risk What is it? | The risk that an investor’s portfolio returns will be low or negative early in a withdrawal period. Given the same starting principal and average return, individuals who incur low or negative returns early on during a particular withdrawal phase are at greater risk of exhausting their funds than individuals who experience low or negative returns later in that same period. This is because during periods of low or negative returns, investors must sell more shares in order to fund the same cash flow need because the price-per-share is lower. This in turn means that fewer shares are available to participate in future market returns, resulting in less portfolio appreciation (and, therefore, compounding returns). Who is at risk? | Individuals who are retired or drawing income from their portfolios. Note that individuals in the accumulation phase are subject to their own sequence of return risk…
Forbes Names Aspen Wealth Strategies’ Andy McClaflin One of The Nation’s Top Next-Gen Wealth Advisors
Aspen Wealth Strategies’ Founder and Chairman, Andy McClaflin, has been named to the 2018 Forbes list of America’s Top Next-Generation Wealth Advisors, which recognizes advisors from national, regional, and independent firms. Andy debuted at No. 233 nationally and No. 3 in Colorado. (To view the entire list, please click here.) Said Andy of this prestigious honor: “I may have been the one named in the article and on the list, but there is no doubt in my mind or that of our clients’, that I could not have done this without our team at Aspen. I’m very proud of the work they do and their commitment to our clients’ long-term success.” Andy, who manages more than $265 million in client assets, offers his clients comprehensive financial planning, asset management, business owner services, and exceptional communication & experience. If you are interested in setting up a complimentary consultation with Andy and his…
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