Weekly Talking Points 8/1/2016

Investment & Economic Talking points

  1. The number of unemployed persons per job opening (a sign of strength in the job market) is at its lowest point since the tech bubble of 2000. This plays into out thesis of keeping a close eye on inflation – the tighter the job market, the more likely we are to see upward wage pressure.
  2. Last week’s data showed continued inflation pressure with Core CPI coming in at 2.3%. Retail sales also improved, showing continued strength in the US consumer. This is a critical indicator for the US economy.
  3. Last weeks FED meeting was a non-event given BREXIT and mixed data globally. However – there are rumblings of a December rate hike.
  4. GDP was announced at 1.2% annualized for Q2 – generally regarded as a disappointment. We are monitoring for continued slowness.

Bottom line

Data is sending mixed signals which has been the norm for more than a year now. We are keeping an eye on the trend, not individual data points. The trend is still signaling slow growth, but the pace of that growth has started to slow. We are likely entering the later part of a business cycle where high-quality stocks and defensive positions will be added to portfolios over time.

About the Author
Joel Faircloth

Joel Faircloth

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Joel Faircloth has built his career through formal education, working for some of the top firms in the country, and by challenging convention. He brings an extensive breadth and depth of experience in the financial services industry and has worn many hats—operations, client service, compliance, trader, marketer, writer, trainer, and investment manager. Joel is a seasoned investment manager, strategist and leader. He believes in the idea that one person or a group of like-minded people can help change an industry, and this is what led him to Aspen Wealth Strategies.

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